The Next Ninety Days

Dear Shareholders,

致股東：

The next ninety days will be managed as a sequence of conditional decisions, not as a single forecast. Our objective is to remain exposed to compensated risk while preventing a temporary market error from becoming a permanent capital impairment.

未來九十天將被管理成一連串有條件的決策，而不是一個單一預測。我們的目標是在承擔獲得補償的風險同時，避免暫時的市場錯誤變成永久資本損失。

Our framework begins with a baseline and three deviations. The constructive deviation is disinflation with resilient earnings and orderly funding, which supports selective risk addition. The inflationary deviation is an energy or supply shock that raises inflation expectations, delays easing, and tightens liquidity. The growth deviation is a demand slowdown that weakens earnings and credit quality faster than rates can provide relief. A fourth state, policy or structural discontinuity, receives no false probability precision; it is handled through loss limits, liquidity, and optionality.

我們的框架從基準情境與三種偏離開始。建設性偏離是通膨放緩、企業獲利具韌性且融資秩序良好，這支持選擇性增加風險。通膨型偏離是能源或供給衝擊推高通膨預期、延後寬鬆並收緊流動性。成長型偏離是需求放緩，使獲利與信用品質惡化的速度快於利率下降所能提供的幫助。第四種狀態是政策或結構性斷裂，我們不會給予虛假的機率精確度，而會透過損失限額、流動性與選擇權處理。

Our market thinking is that fiscal expansion, AI investment, energy constraints, and geopolitical fragmentation can keep inflation volatility above the previous decade’s norm. This does not imply a permanent bearish view on duration or a permanent bullish view on commodities. It implies that cross-asset relationships will be conditional and that the cost of waiting for confirmation may be lower than the cost of assuming the old regime has returned.

本期市場思考認為，財政擴張、AI 投資、能源限制與地緣分化，可能使通膨波動維持在高於上一個十年的水準。這不代表永久看空久期，也不代表永久看多商品。它代表跨資產關係將具有條件性，而且等待確認的成本，可能低於假設舊市場狀態已經回歸的成本。

Our trading action for the next period has three branches. We may add exposure when volatility is digested, financing remains orderly, and the active intermediary variable is not near a persistent stress threshold. We will hold capacity when evidence is mixed and the market offers no favorable asymmetry. We will cut exposure regardless of P&L when a shock, rising intermediary variable, tighter rate conditions, and liquidity stress are consecutively confirmed. Profit will not exempt a position from reduction.

下一階段交易行動分為三條路徑。當波動完成消化、融資秩序良好，而且主要中介變數尚未接近持續壓力閾值時，我們可以增加曝險。當證據混合、缺乏有利不對稱時，我們會保留風險容量。當衝擊、中介變數上升、利率條件收緊與流動性壓力被連續確認時，不論部位當時盈虧，我們都會減曝。獲利不能豁免一個部位遵守減曝規則。

The year’s position is +0.00005 unit profit as of this letter. We preserve the exact number to maintain continuity and auditability. It is not a target, forecast, or indication of future return. Our ambition is not to remain near zero indefinitely. Our ambition is to scale only after evidence, execution, and risk capacity align.

截至本封信，本年度部位為 +0.00005 單位正收益。我們保留精確數字，以維持連續性與可稽核性。它不是目標、預測或未來回報指標。我們的企圖並不是永遠停留在接近零，而是只有在證據、執行與風險容量一致後才擴大規模。

The lesson learned across these letters is that institutional quality comes from explicit boundaries. We must know what we observe, what we infer, what we own, how much we can lose, when correlation may fail, and what evidence forces an update. Expertise is not the elimination of uncertainty. It is the disciplined conversion of uncertainty into bounded decisions.

八封信累積的教訓是，機構級品質來自明確邊界。我們必須知道觀察了什麼、推論了什麼、持有了什麼、最多可以損失多少、相關性何時可能失效，以及哪些證據會迫使更新。專業不是消除不確定性，而是有紀律地把不確定性轉化為有邊界的決策。

The ninety-day baseline is a decision horizon, not a claim that macro events resolve within one quarter. It is long enough to observe persistence across data, policy, earnings, and positioning, while short enough to require explicit review before assumptions become institutional habit. The baseline records expected drivers, tolerated deviations, key vulnerabilities, and the market evidence that would move the portfolio toward offense, neutrality, or defense.

九十天基準是一個決策時間範圍，不是宣稱宏觀事件會在一季內解決。這段時間足以觀察資料、政策、獲利與倉位的持續性，同時又足夠短，能在假設成為組織慣性之前要求明確檢討。基準會記錄預期驅動因素、可容忍偏離、主要脆弱點，以及會使投資組合轉向進攻、中性或防禦的市場證據。

Geometric-path stress testing focuses on the order of returns because sequence determines survivability. Two portfolios can have the same average return and end value yet create very different margin needs, drawdowns, and behavioral pressure along the way. We therefore test clustered losses, volatility jumps, correlation convergence, liquidity discounts, delayed hedge response, and partial recovery. The objective is to determine whether the portfolio can remain governed throughout the path, not merely whether it looks acceptable at the endpoint.

幾何路徑壓力測試重視回報出現的順序，因為順序決定存活能力。兩個投資組合可以擁有相同平均回報與期末價值，卻在過程中產生截然不同的保證金需求、回撤與行為壓力。因此，我們會測試損失聚集、波動跳升、相關性收斂、流動性折價、避險反應延遲與部分復甦。目標是判斷投資組合能否在整條路徑中持續受到治理，而不只是期末結果看似可接受。

The portfolio is not optimized for a single most-likely scenario. It is designed to remain viable across several plausible paths. We examine whether the same exposure loses under both inflation and growth shocks, whether hedges depend on the same liquidity source, and whether carry is sufficient to fund protection while the expected catalyst develops. Scenario balance does not require equal risk in every state, but it requires awareness of where losses cluster.

投資組合不是針對單一最可能情境最佳化，而是設計成能在數條合理路徑下維持運作。我們會檢查同一曝險是否在通膨衝擊與成長衝擊下都會虧損、不同避險是否依賴相同流動性來源，以及在預期催化因素逐步發展期間，票息是否足以支應保護成本。情境平衡不要求每種狀態承擔完全相同風險，但必須了解損失會在哪裡聚集。

Optionality includes more than listed options. Cash, near-maturity securities, borrowing capacity, operational readiness, and preapproved instruments all affect the ability to respond. We measure optionality by how much exposure can be changed within one day, one week, and one month under normal and stressed liquidity. This turns flexibility from a qualitative claim into an operational property.

選擇權不只包括上市選擇權。現金、接近到期的證券、借款能力、操作準備度與預先核准工具，都會影響反應能力。我們會衡量在正常與壓力流動性下，一天、一週與一個月內可以改變多少曝險。這能把彈性從定性主張轉化為操作特性。

At the end of each ninety-day window, continuation is not automatic. The portfolio must re-earn its structure. We will compare observed drivers with the baseline, test whether risk carriers behaved as expected, review the +0.00005 unit result without exaggeration, and decide which exposures deserve renewed capital. The next period begins with an explicit decision, not with passive inheritance from the previous one.

每個九十天窗口結束時，投資組合不會自動延續，而必須重新證明其結構值得保留。我們會把實際驅動因素與基準情境比較，測試風險載體是否如預期運作，在不誇大的前提下檢討 +0.00005 單位結果，並決定哪些曝險值得再次獲得資本。下一階段會從明確決策開始，而不是被動繼承上一階段。

Our next action is practical and integrated. We will refresh the ninety-day baseline, run geometric-path stress tests rather than rely only on average returns, compare downside-sensitive performance measures with conventional volatility measures, and issue every material update in a stable record covering what changed, why it changed, and the portfolio implication. Each update will also include the confidence level, expected persistence, implementation horizon, and reversal condition. Disclosures will remain focused on states and rules rather than revealing sensitive position sizing or exact holdings. This creates a traceable bridge from new evidence to capital action while preserving appropriate confidentiality. Above all, we will protect the right to make the next decision.

下一步將是具體而整合的行動。我們會更新九十天基準情境，進行幾何路徑壓力測試，而不是只依賴平均報酬；把下行敏感的績效衡量與傳統波動指標並列；並以固定紀錄發布每項重大更新，說明改變了什麼、為什麼改變，以及對投資組合的含義。每次更新亦會加入信心水準、預期持續時間、執行時間範圍與反轉條件。揭露將集中於狀態與規則，而不透露敏感的具體部位規模或確切持倉。這能在新證據與資本行動之間建立可追蹤橋樑，同時維持適當保密。最重要的是，我們會保護繼續作出下一個決策的權利。

Sincerely,

謹致

Vertex Macro 極點宏觀